Summary for importers and distributors: Europe is in the middle of a structural air-conditioning boom, but classic wall splits are hard to install in large parts of the market. The categories moving fastest in 2026 are R290 portable ACs, through-wall monobloc units and quick-connect splits. Here is the evidence, the regulatory background, and what to stock.
1. The demand shock is real — and structural
Western Europe recorded its hottest June ever in 2025, a record broken again in June 2026 (Copernicus, WMO). Researchers estimate roughly 62,700 heat-related deaths across Europe in summer 2024 (Nature Medicine). Yet residential AC penetration in Europe is still only about 19–20%, versus roughly 90% in the US — a huge structural gap.
The trade numbers follow: China’s air-conditioner exports to the EU reached a record in H1 2026 (over 40% year-on-year growth), and portable units grew more than 70% to Western Europe (Bloomberg). Retailers in Germany and Austria repeatedly sold out of quick-connect split units during the 2026 June heatwave.
2. Why classic splits are hard to sell in Europe
It is not one blanket ban. It is a patchwork: facade and heritage rules, condominium consent thresholds (an absolute majority of owners in Spain; owners’ assemblies in France plus town-hall declarations; historic-centre restrictions in Italy), noise ordinances, and landlord approval for the roughly one third of Europeans who rent. The practical result: for a large share of urban households, hanging an outdoor unit on the wall is slow, expensive or simply not permitted — while professional installation quotes can run to thousands of euros where installers are scarce.
3. What to stock in 2026
- R290 portable air conditioners (single / dual duct). Plug-and-play, renter-friendly, and the single fastest-moving no-install category in Europe right now. R290 is mandatory here: EU F-gas rules have prohibited high-GWP refrigerants in movable room ACs since 2020.
- Through-wall monobloc units (no outdoor unit). All components indoors; only two ~16 cm vents through the external wall, leaving the facade essentially unchanged — the category purpose-built for heritage buildings and permit-restricted city centres.
- Quick-connect splits. Pre-charged couplings and a balcony / window-sill bracket instead of drilling and F-gas-certified installation. The breakout European product of 2025–2026 — units resold above retail price during heatwaves.
One correction to a common assumption: US-style window ACs are not the play for Europe. European casement and tilt-turn windows are physically incompatible with them, and they raise the same facade issues as splits.
4. The compliance clock: F-gas Regulation (EU) 2024/573
From 1 January 2027, self-contained air conditioners and heat pumps up to 12 kW (plug-in portables, monoblocs) may no longer use fluorinated refrigerants with GWP ≥ 150, with a full F-gas phase-out for the category on the horizon (European Commission). R290 (propane, GWP = 3) is the mainstream compliant path. Importers should be specifying R290 now — anything else risks unsellable inventory after 2027.
5. Import checklist
- CE marking with a complete EU Declaration of Conformity and technical file — as the importer, you are legally the guarantor.
- R290 refrigerant for all portable / monobloc units; verify charge limits and safety compliance (EN 378 / IEC 60335-2-40).
- EU energy label and Ecodesign compliance for single / double duct units.
- Factory audit and third-party performance test reports.
Sourcing from China: how we help
HVACSourcing.com works with vetted Chinese factory lines producing R290 portable ACs, through-wall monoblocs and quick-connect splits for the European market, alongside our core commercial range (VRF, chillers, rooftop units, light commercial splits). We handle engineering selection, certification paperwork and consolidated shipping — under our label or yours.